Interact Analysis slashes its mobile robot outlook amid tariff uncertainty

The mobile robot industry, previously marked by rapid expansion and investment, is now undergoing a period of challenges and readjustment. Interact Analysis has recently revised its predictions to reflect current global conditions and its new expectations as to how the market will develop.

In the research firm’s latest mobile robot market report, published in May 2025, it significantly lowered its forecast, citing a complex mix of geopolitical, economic, and industry-specific challenges, along with changes to our methodology in calculating market sizes.

2025 forecast cut: A $800M reality check

Interact Analysis’ latest analysis presented an $800 million reduction in the 2025 market forecast, with lower growth predicted in each of the major regions. This adjustment reflects a broader reassessment of the industry’s growth trajectory, with the 2030 revenue projection now standing at $15.6 billion, down from its earlier, more optimistic estimates.

The resulting compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the next five years has also been trimmed from 26% down to 21%.

Multiple factors drive the downgrade

Tariffs: The elephant in the warehouse

At the heart of the forecast revision lies the damaging global tariffs, instigated by the new U.S. administration under President Trump, said Interact Analysis. These tariffs are reshaping global supply chains and injecting a high degree of uncertainty into capital investment decisions, causing delays. Companies are holding back on large-scale automation investments, wary of shifting trade policies and uncertain over both their own costs and the fiscal health of customers and vendors.

Interact Analysis’ Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) Index hit an all-time high of 430 in January 2025. This level of uncertainty exceeds that seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, many companies are adopting a “wait-and-see” approach, delaying strategic investments in warehouse automation and infrastructure.

Aside from the increased costs, which would likely be passed through (partially or totally) to end customers, decades of globalization have meant products are rarely constructed entirely in a single country. Mobile robots are no different, and foreign vendors (most notably Chinese) will struggle to remain competitive in the U.S. and possibly Europe.

Similarly, domestic U.S. vendors will incur higher costs (at least in the short term) as they import components and subsystems from China and Asia-Pacific (APAC).

Interact Analysis sees a fragile recovery for warehouse construction

While there are tentative signs of recovery in warehouse construction – especially in the U.S. and Japan – growth remains sluggish. The global forecast for new warehouse capacity in 2025 has been revised upward slightly, but still remains in negative territory at -2% year over year out to 2030.

Elevated construction costs, industrial overcapacity, and policy uncertainty continue to weigh heavily on the sector.

A new view of mobile robots

Aside from the external factors outlined above, much of the reduction in Interact Analysis’ forecasts has come from the way it measures and predicts demand for mobile robots. A reassessment of vendor-by-vendor volumes led to an 8% reduction in its market sizes for 2024 and earlier.

At the same time, the research firm has conducted a thorough analysis of all possible customer sites for automation. By better considering the throughput levels of customer sites, it has adjusted its expectations for mobile automation, compared with fixed automation and manual labor. The net result of this is that the serviceable available market (SAM) for mobile robots is lower than it had previously projected, as market penetration for order-fulfillment robots is assumed to be limited to low and mid-throughput sites.

Finally, as Interact Analysis has been researching this market since 2017 and now has eight years of historical data, it is in a stronger position to understand the likely average growth rate for this industry following both the peak and trough of market cycles. The overall impact of the above factors is a hefty reduction in its forecast for autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) and automated guided vehicles (AGVs).

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Observations on each mobile robot type:

AGV conveyors and other material transport robots: Shipment growth reduced from 6% CAGR to 4% between 2025 and 2030 due to weakened economy and automotive growth.

AMR conveyors: 15% to 20% cut in large form-factor shipments and slight reduction in smaller form-factor shipments due to slower anticipated uptake. Slightly offset by higher average selling prices (ASPs).

Automated forklifts: Slight reduction in shipment CAGR due to the weaker economy.

Person-to-goods (P2G): Interact Analysis made a fundamental change to its outlook for P2G robots. Its previous assumption was that more vendors would enter this market to enable volumes to scale. However, the market remains dominated by one vendor: Locus. Its once-closest rival, 6 River Systems, has been absorbed into Ocado Intelligent Automation.

A handful of other vendors active have won some projects, but not at scale, said Interact Analysis. Despite this, it predicted that P2G revenues will grow at an average pace of 30% annually to 2030.

And to clarify a recent comment about P2G being an interim step before full automation, Interact Analysis did not suggest that demand for this technology is going to slow. In fact, the demand for more flexible solutions remains very strong, and the prospect of full automation is still several decades out, it said.

Shelf-to-person and tote-to-person: These product types are those most affected by both the U.S. tariffs and vendor adjustments, as a large proportion of these segments are served by Chinese vendors. Similarly, Interact Analysis said its deeper analysis of the total addressable market (TAM) by warehouse throughput impacts these systems, which typically compete with fixed automation and high-density cube storage in mid-throughput sites.

At the same time, the firm has reduced its expectations for deployments in the rest of APAC and rest of the Americas regions because it no longer expect costs to drop quickly enough to compete with manual labor in many cases.

Interact Analysis sees more adaptation over acceleration

The message from Interact Analysis is clear: The mobile robot industry is still growing, but not as fast or as smoothly as once expected. Tariffs, economic uncertainty, and shifting global dynamics are forcing companies to rethink their strategies and timelines.

For stakeholders across the automation ecosystem – from vendors and integrators to end users and investors – this is a time for strategic patience and adaptability, it said. The fundamentals of automation remain strong, but the path forward will require some careful navigation.

About the author

Ash Sharma is the chief commercial officer and vice president of research for robotics and warehouse automation at Interact Analysis. He has 20 years of experience to the table in sectors ranging from industrial automation and smart manufacturing to drones, robotics, and medical technology.

Editor’s note: This article was syndicated, with permission, from Interact Analysis.